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Thursday, January 03, 2008

Iowa Prediction

Here is what I was telling folks at the Christmas party - figured I would post it before polls close.

The Huck will win with at least 30%,
Romney and Fred will fight for second at around 20% each.
Ron Paul and McCain will also finish in the teens.

Unless Fred can win big in Michigan and then SC or Florida -
I predict Huckabee will win the nomination.

More later as to why, just wanted to get it out there.

9:15 Update
Looks like I was close.
Romney and Huckabee seem to have pulled votes I anticipated for Thompson.
Not a good sign for him, He will need to well in Mich but I think his time has past.
Everyone else is where I expected.

And Clinton did better then pundits were saying.
As I mentioned at Christmas, never underestimate the power of the Machine.
Who do you think are Precinct chairs?
Unless Clinton makes a big mistake, her people will allow her to win.
(Think LBJ & Texas for Kennedy)


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