The Savage Republican

Iowa Prediction

Here is what I was telling folks at the Christmas party - figured I would post it before polls close.

The Huck will win with at least 30%,
Romney and Fred will fight for second at around 20% each.
Ron Paul and McCain will also finish in the teens.

Unless Fred can win big in Michigan and then SC or Florida -
I predict Huckabee will win the nomination.

More later as to why, just wanted to get it out there.

9:15 Update
Looks like I was close.
Romney and Huckabee seem to have pulled votes I anticipated for Thompson.
Not a good sign for him, He will need to well in Mich but I think his time has past.
Everyone else is where I expected.

And Clinton did better then pundits were saying.
As I mentioned at Christmas, never underestimate the power of the Machine.
Who do you think are Precinct chairs?
Unless Clinton makes a big mistake, her people will allow her to win.
(Think LBJ & Texas for Kennedy)

Old college terms and MMGW

Years ago I first heard the term "gigo". I was in college at the U of M. "Garbage In, Garbage Out". In other words, you get out what you get in. Put water in the gas tank, the car's not running or not running well.
I started out taking microbiology for pre-med at the U of M. Chemistry, organic chemistry, calculus, physics. If my data in wasn't accurate or my observations were flawed, my results would also be flawed. GIGO. Now, if there are widespread data and policy reports based on flawed data, and that laws and mass ecocomic planning were to based on those therefore flawed reports,that would be dangerous. Even unforgivable. And so it is with every single Man Made Global Warming (MMGW) believer and supporter.
Patrick J. Michaels, a Ph.D who is also a senior Fellow at the Cato Institute, has authored an article called "Not So Hot" about the terribly flawed MMGW reports that swamp us. He and Ross McKitrick from Canada's University of Guelph decided to put to the test the theory that the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that urban centers only account for 10% of the observed warming. Now, the basis of any experimentation is the ability to duplicate the results. Well, needless to say that Michaels and McKitrick found that the IPCC overstates warming by at least 100%.
One point: information from North American weather stations are fairly reliable. Information is terribly unreliable from Africa and South America (for instance,he cites that weather stations need to be painted white or the temperature data is too warm. And that the priority to keep a remote station painted white is low on the Need to Do list). They also factored in socioeconomic circumstances.
And Michaels asked "Where is the press?" Nowhere with the exception of a few blogs and one Canadian paper.
Go read the article. Send it off to Amy and Norm and Betty and Hakim and Jim. And remember that ethanol, no oil exploration, the new CAFE standards from the new Anti Energy Bill (all are unconstitutional) are all based on the seriously flawed IPCC. But, the left and many RINOs will still be true believers. They know the truth. The facts therefore become irrelevant.
Oh, and while you're at it, ask if Al Gore will be returning his Oscar and his Nobel Peace Prize.

Commodity prices

Drudge reports that gold has surpassed $850/oz and oil is over $100 bbl. And this is being widely reported as news. The price for crude in 1980 was $37/bbl. In inflation adjusted dollars this is about $99/bbl. So we've already been there over a quarter century ago. And again, with the watermelons (green on the outside, red on the inside) stopping any and all domestic oil drilling, India and Red China making significant demand on oil production that weren't there in 1980, I'm surprised it's taken this long to get back to these prices.
As for gold, at $850/oz spot, that translates to about $320/oz spot in 1980. In other words, at $850/oz, the current spot price is about 40% of it's 1980 high point (put another way, gold would have to be at $2270/oz in inflation adjusted dollars to be at the same price in 1980).
Now, the thing about commodity prices, specifically oil, is that production of the commodity makes for fungibility. In other words, if the fools in Congress get out of the way and allow us to develop our own oil reserves, that means we purchase less on the world spot market thereby freeing up production for the rest of the world and easing demand by increasing supply. And our own production is not open to choke points like the Straits of Hormuz and is much more easily defended than Saudi oil fields. Also, remember when the green wienies said that by me filling up my SUV I was pouring money into Al Queada? Well, by drilling our own oil, that problem goes away.
Oh ,and a BTW , if we'd been drilling in ANWR that oil would now be online. So, in effect, Norm Coleman and every single Republican that votes for ethanol, votes against drilling in ANWR and the coastal shelf and in the Gulf of Mexico has sent billions of dollars to Iran, Saudi Arabia and the like. They have cost the American citizens billions in extra costs for nearly everything.
I've said it before: the best thing Congress and any President can do for the American economy is to stay the hell out of the way! Leave us alone! We have done and will always do a better job with money and jobs that you people ever could. Ever!

Thompson: off the bus and into the trenches

I've been asked a number of times my thoughts about the Republican primary race. Ron Paul is the only true strict constructionist in the race. Where he leaves me flat and cold is foreign policy. It appears to me that he fails to fully realize that we smacked the tar baby of entangling foreign relationships in 1917 (those Founding Father guys really knew what they were talking about, huh?). Just another horrible legacy from the early 20th century presidents and Congress. So, Paul is unelectable. Sorry Paulites. Time to breathe real oxygen.
So, I tell people my favored candidate is Fred Thompson. But, his campaign just has not ramped up, caught fire, is a hang fire, whatever.
But today, he has a seventeen minute video that hits all the important points that I find necessary to show people that he is a campaigner of and a leader from the Reagan mold.

Appreciating blazing insight.

Ya know, when Prairie Pravda exhibits deep acumen and wisdom, well, I've just got to congratulate them. The top of the online fold reads "Crackdown Turns Around Crime in Minneapolis". The core of the article reads:"Apprehending the worst offenders and putting more cops on the streets has helped stem violent crime, which spiked last year..." The reporter states that apparently jailing lawbreakers and putting more cops on the streets works in reducing crime! WOW! Who could have known?
So, yah mean having a green roof on City Hall, having an Afro-American Mens Center, jobs training, etc didn't and doesn't reduce crime but arresting criminals does? Huh.
Well, welcome to a world where the sky is blue, Mayor Grossly Apparent.
However, there are still those race pimps that want everything their way. "Still, "I don't think people feel safe in Phillips," said Clyde Bellecourt, co-chairman of the Police Community Relations Council. "I don't see people walking alone at night, and more houses seem to have bars on windows." And yet, Bellecourt and the Police Community Relations Council are suing the Minneapolis Department (story here).
Yup, so the message from Bellecourt and the PCRC is "You're not doing enough to protect us while we're suing your butt!!!"
And if that isn't enough, read this article on Anti-Strib. Then remember how Hizzoner R.T. Rybak went to Governor Pawlenty to beg for more state money to put more cops on the streets of Minneapolis? (Notice how MPR [Marxist Propaganda Radio] spins the article as if the state is to blame for crime in Minneapolis? Your tax money well spent keeping them on the air).
Just a few more in the long list of reasons I don't and will never live in the sinkhole called Minneapolis.

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Thursday, January 03, 2008

Iowa Prediction

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Old college terms and MMGW

Commodity prices

Monday, December 31, 2007

Thompson: off the bus and into the trenches

Sunday, December 30, 2007

Appreciating blazing insight.