Ever wonder what really happened on Election Day 2006? Despite all the Republicans protests with their abysmal campaign slogan "It Will Be Worse With Them!", the election proved again that perception is reality in politics. The following survey shows that the electorate believed that "it would be worse" with the Republicans! We conservatives had been warning the Republicans for years and started calling for "General Quarters" two to four years ago.
Due to some technical problems, it wasn't able to be posted until today.

Still thinking that Tuesday was Democratic Victory Day? Disabuse yourself of that notion immediately. Rush was right. Tuesday was a repudiation of Republicanism, not conservatism by a long shot.
Pat Toomey has an excellent article on National Review Online where he cites a survey from Basswood Research that shows how the perception of the Republican Party has changed. The summary is here...and is a real eye opener:

In these key districts that were so instrumental in the Democrats’ takeover of the House it is clear that the national Republican Party is not seen as embracing the pro-economic growth, smaller government concepts that majorities of voters favor.

An overwhelming 73% of voters correctly perceive that the size and cost of the federal government has gone up in recent years. However, in an odd twist on President Clinton’s 1995 declaration that “the era of big government is over,” it is now the Republican Party that is viewed as being the “party of big government,” and the Democratic Party is widely seen as doing a better job of eliminating wasteful spending.

Among Independents, the swing voters in these swing districts, 40% said they saw no difference between the parties on “eliminating wasteful spending,” while by a 2.5:1 ratio, more saw the Democrats as superior to the Republicans in this area. Similarly, among Independents, 23% viewed both parties as “the party of big government,” but twice as many describe the Republicans than Democrats that way. Stunningly, even 29% of Republicans said the Republicans are the “party of big government,” with an additional 17% of Republicans saying both parties fit that description.

Those who say the Republican Party in Washington has lost its way on issues of fiscal discipline and economic growth include 72% of Independents and 43% of Republicans.

Despite the clear rejection of the Republican Party on fiscal issues, there remains widespread majority appeal for the principles of lower taxes and smaller government. The same Independent swing voters show strong majority support for extending the 2003 income, capital gains, and dividend tax rate cuts, as well as permanently eliminating the death tax. They also show solid majority support for reducing federal spending, even if that means reducing spending in their own districts.

If Republicans can strongly reclaim their previous branding of being the party of smaller government, or, conversely, if the Democrats refuse to extend tax cuts or curtail massive pork spending, then the Republicans have a chance to again win over many of these swing districts in the next election. Alternatively, if the Republicans continue to present voters with no reason to prefer them to the Democrats on fiscal issues, they likely will fail to reclaim these lost swing districts.

Methodology

This survey of public opinion in 15 congressional districts across the nation was conducted November 4-5, 2006, among 800 likely general election voters. All interviews were conducted by professional interviewers by telephone. Interview selection was at random from among lists of registered voters with a history of voting in general elections in each district. The sample was equally weighted among the 15 districts. The accuracy of this survey with 800 likely voters is within +/-3.46% at a 95% confidence interval.

The Districts

The survey was conducted in the following 15 congressional districts: Arizona-8; Colorado-7; Connecticut-2; Florida-13; Iowa-1; Illinois-6; Indiana-2; Indiana-8; Indiana-9; North Carolina-11; New York-24; Ohio-15; Pennsylvania-6; Virginia-2; and Washington-8.

These 15 districts have the following significant characteristics:

v All were House seats that were held by Republicans going into this election (9 by incumbent Republicans seeking reelection; 6 open seats left by retiring Republican incumbents)

v All were races that were generally thought to be among the most competitive districts for Republicans to hold this year; however, no district was including that was touched by major scandal (i.e. FL-16, OH-18, PA-7, PA-10, and TX-22 were excluded).

v The districts were distributed relatively evenly throughout the country: 3 in the Northeast; 3 in the South; 3 in the West; 6 in the Midwest.

v In 2004, President Bush carried 10 of the 15 districts over John Kerry, making the overall sample somewhat skewed toward Republican districts.

v On Election-Day 2006, Democrats were elected to replace Republicans in XX of these 15 districts, providing YY% of the gains the Democrats needed to take over the House majority.

Key Findings

Party Preferences

• Q: With which political party are you registered or affiliated?

A: Republican 37.6%

Democrat 40.6%

Independent 19.4%

Refused 2.4%

• Q: Would you prefer to see the Democrats or the Republicans in control of

Congress when the new Congress meets in January?

A: Democrats 50.8%

Republicans 36.3%

Refused 13%

Attitudes About Size of Government

• Q: In the last four years, do you think the size and cost of the federal

government has gone up, gone down, or stayed about the same?

A: Gone Up 73.0%

Gown Down 5.5%

Stayed the Same 14.4%

Don’t know/Refused 7.1%

• Q: All other things being equal, which type of candidate for Congress would

you be more likely to vote for? A candidate who wants to reduce overall federal spending, even if that includes cutting some money that would come to your district; or, a candidate who is willing to increase overall spending on federal programs and grow the federal budget, in order to get more federal spending and projects for your district?

A: Cut spending 57.3%

Bring home projects 27.6%

Don’t know/Refused 15.1%

Beliefs About the Two Parties’ Stands on Size of Government Issues

Introduction to Questions: Now, I’m going to read a list of issue topics. When you look at Washington today, please tell me whether you think the Republicans or the Democrats are doing a better job on each issue. If you see no difference between the parties on these issues, just say so.

• Q: “Promoting Economic Growth”

A: Republicans 37.5%

Democrats 36.1%

No Difference 21.8%

Don’t know/Refused 4.6%

• Q: “Eliminating Wasteful Spending”

A: Republicans 24.6%

Democrats 39.1%

No Difference 30.3%

Don’t know/Refused 6.0%

Introduction to Question: Now tell me whether you think the following phrases better describe the Republicans or the Democrats in Washington.

• Q: “The Party of Big Government”

A: Republicans 39.3%

Democrats 27.9%

Both 16.3%

Neither 9.3%

Don’t know/Refused 7.4%

• Q: Would you agree or disagree with the following statement: “The

Republicans used to be the party of economic growth, fiscal discipline, and limited government, but in recent years, too many Republicans in Washington have become just like the big spenders that they used to oppose.”

A: Agree 65.8%

Strongly Agree 43.4%

Somewhat Agree 22.4%

Disagree 26.4%

Strongly Disagree 13.4%

Somewhat Disagree 13.0%

Don’t know/Refused 7.9%

Views on Current Tax Policy

• Q: The 2003 federal tax cuts lowered tax rates on capital gains and dividend

income. In two years, those taxes will go up if Congress does not extend the tax cuts. Do you support extending the current lower rates on capital gains and dividends, or do you support allowing those taxes to go up?

A: Extend the tax cuts 62.1%

Allow taxes to rise 24.8%

Don’t know/Refused 13.1%

• Q: The 2003 federal tax cuts lowered income tax rates across the board,

cutting the lowest tax rate from 15% down to 10%, and cutting the highest tax rate from 39.6% down to 35%. In four years, those tax rates will return to their previously higher levels if Congress does not extend the tax cuts. Do you support extending the current lower income tax rates, or do you support allowing the income tax cuts to expire and let rates return to their previous higher levels?

A: Extend the tax cuts 59.1%

Allow the tax cuts to expire 26.8%

Don’t know/Refused 14.1%

• Q: The 2001 federal tax cuts phased out the inheritance tax, also known as the

death tax. The law is currently scheduled to completely eliminate the death tax in four years, but then it allows the death tax to return in the year 2011. Would you prefer to have the death tax permanently eliminated, or would you prefer to see the death tax brought back in 2011?

A: Permanent elimination 61.6%

Brought back in 2011 21.5%

Don’t know/Refused 16.9%

Analysis

In these key districts that were so instrumental in the Democrats’ takeover of the House it is clear that the national Republican Party is not seen as embracing the pro-economic growth, smaller government concepts that majorities of voters favor.

An overwhelming 73% of voters correctly perceive that the size and cost of the federal government has gone up in recent years. However, in an odd twist on President Clinton’s 1995 declaration that “the era of big government is over,” it is now the Republican Party that is viewed as being the “party of big government,” and the Democratic Party is widely seen as doing a better job of eliminating wasteful spending.

Among Independents, the swing voters in these swing districts, 40% said they saw no difference between the parties on “eliminating wasteful spending,” while by a 2.5:1 ratio, more saw the Democrats as superior to the Republicans in this area. Similarly, among Independents, 23% viewed both parties as “the party of big government,” but twice as many describe the Republicans than Democrats that way. Stunningly, even 29% of Republicans said the Republicans are the “party of big government,” with an additional 17% of Republicans saying both parties fit that description.

Those who say the Republican Party in Washington has lost its way on issues of fiscal discipline and economic growth include 72% of Independents and 43% of Republicans.

Despite the clear rejection of the Republican Party on fiscal issues, there remains widespread majority appeal for the principles of lower taxes and smaller government. The same Independent swing voters show strong majority support for extending the 2003 income, capital gains, and dividend tax rate cuts, as well as permanently eliminating the death tax. They also show solid majority support for reducing federal spending, even if that means reducing spending in their own districts.

If Republicans can strongly reclaim their previous branding of being the party of smaller government, or, conversely, if the Democrats refuse to extend tax cuts or curtail massive pork spending, then the Republicans have a chance to again win over many of these swing districts in the next election. Alternatively, if the Republicans continue to present voters with no reason to prefer them to the Democrats on fiscal issues, they likely will fail to reclaim these lost swing districts.

About Basswood Research

In the past six years, Basswood Research has conducted hundreds of thousands of public opinion survey interviews covering hundreds of states, localities, and legislative and congressional districts. Its clients include a dozen Governors, U.S. Senators, and Members of Congress, as well as state and national political party committees and leading issue advocacy organizations. In 2002 and 2004, Roll Call newspaper listed Basswood’s Jon Lerner as one of the nation’s leading political consultants.